A Campaign Preview

Okay, folks. After Al Gore's dramatic endorsement Tuesday of Howard Dean as the Democratic nominee for president, this is how it's gonna sugar off in the next few months. Cut it out, put it on the refrigerator door, and watch it unfold.

Joe Lieberman should be the first to drop out, as he was most badly wounded by Gore's announcement, but instead it will be John Edwards—in a week or less. His was always a longshot candidacy because of his age and inexperience, but he presented well and stayed out of the in-fighting. In dropping out, he too will endorse Howard Dean and, along with Gore, will be able to offer him valuable assistance in South Carolina and the other southern primaries, with the hope of a cabinet post for his gracious behavior.

Lieberman will surrender to the inevitable a week or two later, confronted with a complete cutoff of funding and simply unable to keep up a brave face any more after his brutal comeuppance this week. He will endorse nobody, and will remain bitter throughout both the primary and general election campaigns.

Losing mainline support because of Gore's move, Dick Gephart will quit the campaign immediately after a solid Dean victory in Iowa. Dean will ask him for advice on economic matters, but they will never be close. John Kerry, to everybody's surprise, will not wait to be beaten in New Hampshire. Shortly after Dean's victory in Iowa, and still facing a 20-point deficit in New Hampshire, Kerry will make a magnanimous exit, extolling Dean for bringing the excitement to the race that he, Kerry, never could muster and for turning up the heat on the President over Iraq. He will offer his foreign policy and wartime experience to help polish Dean's international strategies.

The three minor candidates, Al Sharpton, Carole Moseley-Braun, and Dennis Kucinich, will continue in the race through the New Hampshire primary, because they are having fun. Then, devoid of funds and attracting little media attention, they will drop out. Kucinich, nursing his self-righteous streak, will be the last of the three to quit.

Gen. Wesley Clark will be Dean's final opponent, and he will continue in the race through the South Carolina primary, where he may even beat Howard Dean by a narrow margin. But Gov. Clark will begin to show a brittle streak that makes many party regulars nervous, and Dean, with the support of Gore, Edwards, and Kerry, will become the insider candidate with Clark the outsider. Dean's early funding and grassroots organization will carry him to solid victories on Super Tuesday. Gov. Clark will then quit the field in a dignified manner, hoping for a vice presidential spot or at least another NATO appointment. He will get neither.

In a nod to the conspiracy theorists, we must recognize the possibility that Clark's candidacy will be boosted by a sudden endorsement by the Clintons. But that is unlikely, and even if he does endorse Clark, Bill Clinton with all his liabilities will be unable to campaign for him with the passion that Al Gore brought to his task this week. Hillary will stay out of it.

In any case, Howard Dean will have sewn up the Democratic nomination by spring, and nominated by acclamation in Boston. He could do worse than pick Al Gore for vice president.